Possible Impact in 2032 : This Week in Space

The Risk of an Asteroid Impact

Could a deadly asteroid strike Earth in less than eight years? The short answer is yes, but the real question lies in the meaning of two key words: “deadly” and “could.”

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024 by the ATLAS early warning system in Chile. Since then, multiple telescopes have tracked it, including the LAST sky survey at the Weizmann Institute of Science, which captured images of the asteroid using telescopes at the  new observatory in Neot Smadar in the Arava Desert. At the time of observation, the asteroid was approximately 14 million kilometers away. Estimates suggest its diameter is between 40 and 90 meters, though further observations are needed to determine its exact size.

The asteroid follows an elongated orbit around the Sun, traveling from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter into the inner solar system. Along its path, it crosses Earth’s orbit. Astrophysicists are analyzing all available observations to refine its predicted trajectory, improving accuracy as more data is collected. Preliminary calculations suggest a close pass by Earth in 2028 and a small chance of impact on its next orbit in late 2032. 

Initially, the probability of impact was estimated at 1 in 83, but recent updates have increased this to 1 in 53, meaning a 1.9 percent chance. "We cannot currently calculate the asteroid’s trajectory with meter-level precision, so we define a broad uncertainty zone where it might be at any given moment. On December 22, 2032, less than 2% of that zone overlaps with Earth's orbit," explains asteroid researcher Dr. David Polishook, head of the observatory at the Weizmann Institute.

If asteroid 2024 YR4 was to impact Earth, it would cause significant damage—but on a local scale. The extent of destruction would depend on both its exact size and the impact location. “The asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013, was about 20 meters in diameter. If 2024 YR4 is 40 meters, its energy would be eight times greater. If it reaches 90 meters, the energy would be *about 70 times greater,” explains Polishook.

The Chelyabinsk impact injured more than 1,000 people and caused widespread damage. If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the potential impact zone stretches across northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, southern Arabia, the Indian Ocean, and northern India.

A direct impact in a populated city could cause a major disaster, but large portions of the projected impact zone are sparsely populated. IIf the asteroid were to strike the ocean, it wouldn’t cause direct damage but could trigger tsunamis. Either way, its current trajectory does not pose a risk to Israel or the Mediterranean.

"Next month, the James Webb Space Telescope will be able to observe the asteroid, giving us better information about its size and composition," explains Polishook, who was also part of the DART planetary defense mission, in which NASA successfully managed to alter the trajectory of a larger asteroid.

"If we determine that there is a real risk of impact, we could deploy multiple DART-like spacecraft to intercept the asteroid during its 2028 close approach. The DART mission successfully shifted a larger asteroid’s trajectory by several tens of meters. With a series of precisely controlled impacts, we could similarly alter 2024 YR4’s path, steering it away from a potential collision,” explains Dr. David Polishook.

Despite the recent increase in the calculated impact probability, the risk remains far from certain. "The only time an asteroid impact warning exceeded 1 in 100,000 was for Apophis, which was initially thought to be on course for a 2029 collision with Earth. However, more precise measurements later reduced the risk to zero," says Polishook. "The same could very well happen with 2024 YR4."

The asteroid could cause significant damage, but the risk of impact remains relatively low. The calculated orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 relative to Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, and Jupiter. Source: NASA/JPL.

An Israeli Doctor at NASA

Summer Sofer, a medical student nearing the completion of her studies at the Technion, has been accepted into a prestigious space medicine training program at NASA as part of her internship year.

Sofer grew up in New York and immigrated to Israel at 16 after being recruited by the coach of Israel’s women’s national soccer team. She completed high school at the Wingate Institute’s sports academy, played as a midfielder for the national team, and later returned to the United States to earn a bachelor’s degree in physics. She then came back to Israel to pursue a master’s degree in microbiology and immunology at Tel Aviv University before enrolling in the Technion’s medical school program for American students.

"I’m interested in space medicine, and when I heard about this training program, which is open only to Americans, I applied, went through the selection process and an interview, and was accepted—alongside just one other student—for a six-week internship at Kennedy Space Center in Florida," Sofer told the Davidson Institute’s website. "The training will begin in a few weeks. I don’t yet know what my research focus will be, but I hope it will lead me to a specialization in space medicine after I complete my studies."

As a medical student, Sofer was one of the founders of the Israel Aerospace Medical Association (IAsMA), where she currently serves as CEO. "The association aims to advance the field of space medicine in Israel, promote research, and foster collaborations between institutions in Israel and abroad," she said. "I hope this initiative will help elevate Israel’s standing in the field."

Looking toward NASA. Sofer at the Israeli Association for Aerospace and Space Medicine booth at the Space Conference in Tel Aviv, January 2025. Photo: Itai Nevo.

A Surprise Dismissal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has unexpectedly dismissed the head of Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, Yuri Borisov (68), who had led the organization since 2022. A brief Telegram statement from the Kremlin simply announced his release from duty, without providing any explanation.

Russia’s space program has struggled in recent years, failing to achieve significant milestones. In 2023, it suffered a major setback when the Luna-25 spacecraft crashed while attempting to land at the Moon’s south pole. The failure was particularly striking as India succeeded in a similar mission, becoming the first country to reach the region.

Many of Russia’s international space collaborations were canceled after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine due to Western sanctions. In response, Russia has sought new space partnerships, particularly with China and North Korea. However, its  primary international collaboration—the International Space Station (ISS)—remains operational and is expected to continue functioning until the end of the decade.

Borisov’s successor, Dmitry Bakanov (39), is an economist who previously served as Russia’s Deputy Minister of Transport. Before that, he managed a telecommunications company involved in satellite operations.

In better times—Putin with Yuri Borisov, then Deputy Prime Minister, during a visit to an aircraft plant in Kazan. Photo: The Presidential Press and Information Office.

Feeling Like You're on the Moon

Blue Origin launched an uncrewed suborbital mission last week simulating lunar gravity by inducing self-rotation of the spacecraft. The launch was conducted using the New Shepard rocket, which the company also operates for space tourism flights to the edge of space. This time, the spacecraft carried only scientific experiments, including 29 designed to test technologies related to lunar exploration activities.

Most of the experiments were developed by NASA and focus on key technologies for lunar exploration, including landing systems, lunar dust mitigation, resource utilization, habitat construction, and the development of sensors and instruments. One experiment, for instance, examined how lunar dust particles acquire an electric charge when exposed to ultraviolet radiation under lunar gravity conditions. Another study explored whether lunar gravity influences the ignition speed of certain materials.

During Blue Origin's flights, New Shepard carries the spacecraft to an altitude of approximately 105 kilometers, after which both enter free fall. The rocket then executes a controlled vertical landing near the launch pad at Blue Origin’s East Texas facility. Meanwhile, the capsule provides a few minutes of microgravity for passengers or scientific payloads before deploying drogue parachutes, followed by main parachutes, ensuring a safe landing approximately ten minutes after launch.

On last week's NS-29 mission, part of the free-fall phase was used to simulate lunar gravity. By activating its attitude control thrusters, the spacecraft was set into a gentle spin at approximately 11 rotations per minute. In this state, centrifugal force created an effect equivalent to lunar gravity, which is one-sixth of Earth's gravity. Although the experiment lasted only two minutes, it provided sufficient time for multiple scientific tests to be conducted simultaneously.

"We are excited to bring our lunar-G capability online. Thanks to NASA for the support. This is an entirely new way to bring lunar gravity to NASA and other lunar technology providers, accelerating their research and tech readiness at a much lower cost" tweeted Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp, before the launch was postponed by a week."Plus, we can adapt this New Shepard capability to closely mirror Mars and other solar system gravity environments in the future."

 A 10-Minute Story: Blue Origin’s NS-29 Mission Summary